Effects of Quantitative Easing on the Swedish Real Estate Market, an ARDL Approach

Detta är en Master-uppsats från KTH/Fastigheter och byggande; KTH/Fastigheter och byggande

Sammanfattning: Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy tool used by central banks to stimulate the economy in times when conventional monetary policy is not sufficient. In the wake of covid-19, central banks around the world has announced significant increases in their QE-programs. This research paper aims to find out whether quantitative easing has any statistically significant effect on the stock prices of the Swedish real estate market. Moreover, it aims to produce an indication of the direction of the real estate stock prices over the year of 2020. To those ends, a combination of statistical analysis and economic theory is used. We estimate three Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. For a chosen model, an out-of-sample prediction is carried out as a way to model future stock price movements. We conclude that quantitative easing indeed has a statistically significant effect on real estate stock prices in Sweden. Furthermore, we estimate that stock prices in the real estate sector will see negative movements during the second and third quarter of 2020, followed by a return to positives during the fourth quarter. 

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