Agriculture and Groundwater Overdraft in California’s Central Valley : Lantbruk och grundvatten-övertrassering i Kaliforniens Central Valley region

Sammanfattning: Agriculture in California’s Central Valley is important to the US economy and food supply. High reliance on groundwater (GW) for irrigation has led to GW overdraft. Among the consequences is that the GW level is lowered, increasing the energy requirements and cost of GW extraction. This is assessed in a case study of the Turlock subbasin, as well as a simplified Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), in which the profitability of strategies for avoiding groundwater overdraft is compared to Business As Usual (BAU) for the years 2001 and 2050, using a high and low energy cost estimate. Climate projections are applied to the year 2050. An overdraft of 95 million m3 in 2001 is found to lower the GW level by 19.3cm, leading to an increase in energy requirements and cost of GW extraction of 0.320 Wh/m3 and 0.416 cents/m3, respectively. A reduction in production was found to be less profitable than BAU in all cases except for the year 2050, using high cost estimates. Crop replacement was found to be profitable in all cases. The use of desalinated water was found to be unprofitable in all cases. It is concluded that climate change and irrigation costs will have one or more of the following outcomes: decreased production, a shift towards higher $/m3 crops, and/or increased food prices.