The impact of the Fehmarn Belt link on modal choice - An investigation of potential modal shift on Sweden’s foreign trade

Sammanfattning: The construction of the Fehmarn Belt tunnel is a part of the European Union programme called TEN-T. A programme with the objective to connect the EU member-states in a comprehensive network consisting of road, rail, air and water infrastructure. The tunnel is expected to be operational in 2028, and the outcome will probably impact the freight flows. The objective of this study is to investigate whether a shift of current shares between the transportation modes road, rail and sea will occur once the Fehmarn Belt tunnel is operational and identify potential barriers in the surrounding infrastructure and cross-border traffic. The route between Sweden and European countries located south of the Fehmarn Belt link is the focus. The study is performed through a qualitative method with an explorative approach and interviews with persons in leading positions at Swedish freight forwarders and transport companies have been completed. A literature review is presented in the study as well. The study indicates that determining factors for modal choice is likely to be improved differently for each mode of transportation as a result of the Fehmarn Belt tunnel completion. It is suggested this will affect and contribute to a moderate shift of the current shares between the modes of transportation investigated. The main findings imply that the rail mode is likely to gain shares, the maritime mode is likely to lose shares while it is difficult to foresee changes for the road mode. There are however some uncertain factors that may affect the outcome of the tunnel, such as the user fee and future improvements in the surrounding rail infrastructure.