Media som spåtant? En studie av tidningarnas förutsägelser under Asienkrisen

Detta är en Magister-uppsats från Lunds universitet/Statsvetenskapliga institutionen

Sammanfattning: This is a study of predictions made by the press during the financial crisis in Asia in the autumn of 1997. The study includes a qualitative, quantitative and comparative analysis of the Swedish newspapers Dagens Nyheter, Svenska Dagbladet and Dagens Industri. In the last chapter a quantitative analysis of the newspaper Finanstidningen, that today no longer exists, has also been made for comparative reasons. A theoretical framework is also set in the study to explain how the predictions can affect the economy. The quantitative analysis shows that 2/3 of the texts in the traditional morning papers Dagens Nyheter and Svenska Dagbladet included predictions about the crisis from an Asian or global perspective, while only 1/3 of the texts in the financial newspapers Dagens Industri and Finanstidningen included such predictions. In the qualitative analysis a categorization of different types of predictions are made. Finally there is a discussion about the possible impacts of predictions in the financial news. The conclusion is that unconditional non-analytical predictions paint pictures decreed by Fate and leave the readers uninformed and should therefore be avoided by the press. The conditional analytical predictions have a much better potential to give good guidance for the readers.

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