Wind Power and the Swedish Electricity Market : An analysis of the impact of wind power production on wholesale electricity prices in bidding area SE3

Sammanfattning: Wind power has been growing rapidly in Sweden over the past decade as the country focuses on 100% renewable energy by 2040. The thesis seeks to investigate if increased wind power has had a dampening effect on the hourly day-ahead spot prices in Sweden’s bidding area SE3. An empirical approach is undertaken to estimate the impact that wind power has had onprices. Hourly spot prices for bidding area SE3 for the years 2016-2019 are analysed using a multivariate regression method. Other important variables like hydropower and nuclear production which are very significant in the Swedish electricity market are controlled for in the study. The results confirm that in the period 2016-2019, bidding SE3 experienced a merit order effect on price caused by increased wind power. The study shows that a 1% increase inwind power production is estimated to have decreased SE3 hourly spot prices by between 0.0268% and 0.059% between 2016 and 2019.