Löneutvecklingens bestämningsfaktorer i Sverige

Sammanfattning: The purpose of this essay is to acquire variables that explain and may be used as a base for wage estimation in the private sector in Sweden. The factors that are assumed to have an impact on wage estimation are based on earlier Swedish and international studies. Business survey data, which is based upon monthly questions to firms in various sectors of the Swedish economy posed by the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research, will be analyzed to find out weather they have an impact on Swedish wage settings or not. Tests including business survey data are yet rarely frequent, why this essay will be some kind of a pioneer within the area. To estimate significant factors that influence wage setting in Sweden, three different wage equations have been modeled and tested with a regression model. Analysis of stationarity in the time series, stretching from 1980 to 2008 (2007 and 2008 based on predictions made by the National Institute of Economic Research), has been measured by using a Dickey-Fuller test. Concerned variables have been tested for kointegration. To prove parameter stability a Chow test and a test with dummy variables have been used. The wage equation including business survey data has been developed through the general-to-specific method. The three equations have been evaluated and analyzed on basis of the results given. The conclusion is made that the factors best suited to estimate wage formation in the Swedish private sector are unemployment, labour productivity and an error correction term which depends on the difference between previous real wages and labour productivity. Also a couple of business survey data series appear to have an impact on the Swedish wage setting, for example coincident view upon production volume, order intake and forward-looking views regarding future prices.