Ripe for resolution? : How the recent earthquake impacted India-Pakistan relations

Sammanfattning: The traditional standing in the practice of negotiation which is main concerned with the substance of the proposal for a solution has been somewhat altered by Zartman who do acknowledge the importance of the first idea but adds the dimension of the timing of the efforts for a resolution. Throughout the schools of crisis management and conflict resolution this concept has made its name as the ‘ripeness theory’. The focal point of the theory is termed as the ‘Mutually Hurting Stalemate’ (MHS), a situation where the conflicting parties sense their positions in a hurting impasse. The concept of a ripe moment does not only centre on the parties’ perception of a MHS but is optimally associated with an impending, past or recently avoided catastrophe. Even though the catastrophe is not necessary to either the definition or the existence of a MHS it provides a deadline or a lesson that pain can be sharply increased in something is not done about it now. This in linked with the idea behind the concept that, when the parties find themselves locked into a conflict from which they cannot escalate to victory and this deadlock is painful to them (although not necessarily in equal degrees or for the same reasons), they seek a way out. A unique opportunity presented itself when a earthquake struck the areas between India and Pakistan the 8th of October 2005. Did the post-quake scenario present a new opportunity to collaborate on immediate relief activity and long-term build up? Could suspicion be buried with the wreckage? Could the disaster be a push to intensify the peace process? The aim of this study is to find out if the disaster has made the conflict ripe for resolution or more advanced mediation. The empirical chapters is going down two avenues including the political elites (and their actions) as well as the internal political process which in this study is made up by a) the militancy, and b) editorials from major Pakistani and Indian newspapers. The results of the study can be summed with that the earthquake has not made the conflict ripe for resolution (as in final resolution) but definitely made it ripe for more advanced mediation. This is based on the numerous important counter building measures carried out by the elites of India and Pakistan and the fact that the Kashmiri people were involved in the process. As for the internal political process the militancy did not show any will of collaborate or changing position in the conflict. The results of the newspaper’s editorials is not entirely positive either although both Pakistan and Indian newspapers had a rather positive outlook towards the increased Indo-Pak cooperation and the prospects for the future.