Riskanalysmetoder för höghastighetsjärnväg : Utvärdering av riskanalysmetoder och säkerhetsavstånd för tillämpning på höghastighetsjärnväg
Sammanfattning: The planning for future high-speed railroads has started in Sweden. One of the challenges will be to anticipate risks linked to higher speeds. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate and analyze existing risk analysis methods for conventional railroads and guidelines regarding safety distances. The goal is to decide whether these methods and safety distances could be used to determine derailment risks associated with future high-speed railroads in Sweden. During the last decades, the number of reported accidents has decreased in Sweden while the number of travelled passenger train kilometers has increased. In this thesis, derailment statistics for passenger trains from 2008-2016 are collected. These data are analyzed and compared with data from 1985-1994. The aim is to determine whether the risk of derailment has decreased significantly between the two time periods. Furthermore, the longest distance that a single wagon could travel orthogonally from the railway embankment is investigated. A general theoretical model is developed and applied to high-speed railroads. The results indicate that some of the current probabilistic risk analysis methods would give too conservative results if they were to be applied to upcoming high-speed railroads. According to the theoretical model, impact distances could exceed 30 meters if trains were to derail at speeds of 320 km/h. This indicates that current safety distances do not cover the entire risk zone.
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