Real time highway traffic prediction based on dynamic demand modeling

Sammanfattning: Traffic problems caused by congestion are increasing in cities all over the world. As a traffic management tool traffic predictions can be used in order to make prevention actions against traffic congestion. There is one software for traffic state estimations called Mobile Millennium Stockholm (MMS) that are a part of a project for estimate real-time traffic information.In this thesis a framework for running traffic predictions in the MMS software have been implemented and tested on a stretch north of Stockholm. The thesis is focusing on the implementation and evaluation of traffic prediction by running a cell transmission model (CTM) forward in time.This method gives reliable predictions for a prediction horizon of up to 5 minutes. In order to improve the results for traffic predictions, a framework for dynamic inputs of demand and sink capacity has been implemented in the MMS system. The third part of the master thesis presents a model which adjusts the split ratios in a macroscopic traffic model based on driver behavior during congestion.