Kenya meeting the electricity demand of 2030 : An assessment of how Kenya Vision 2030 and climate change impact the optimal electricity generation mix

Sammanfattning: Kenya’s electricity sector faces extensive development as the country strives to achieve the goal of universal access to electricity by 2020 and the national blueprint Kenya Vision 2030. With a history of overestimating the future electricity demand, it is important to make investment decisions based on realistic demand prognoses. In this study, we evaluate a cost-optimal energy mix for electricity generation in 2030 for scenarios following business-as-usual (BAU) and Kenya Vision 2030 demand forecasts, using the spatial electrification tool OnSSET and the energy system modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Kenya is vulnerable to climate change and faces the challenge of frequent droughts, making water management a national priority. This study considers the nexus of Climate, Land, Energy and Water (CLEW). We look at how a climate change scenario, following a worst-case development according to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, can affect the hydrology of the Tana River and thereby the electricity generation from its hydro power plants. Results show that the share of grid connected households increase with a higher demand forecast, that the investment cost of meeting the electricity demand of Kenya Vision 2030 is 106 % higher than the investment cost at BAU demand and that extreme climate change reduces the electricity generation of hydropower, leading up to that 2 % of electricity production must be supplied by other (non-hydro) sources in 2030. A conclusion drawn from this study is that the demand estimation has a central role for the investments in electricity technologies and is suggested to be based on trends of Kenya’s actual growth rather than visionary goals. Another conclusion is that a scenario of climate change impacts the future usage of hydropower, making the nexus to other natural resources important to include in the development of the electricity system.