De kort- och långsiktiga konsekvenserna av den kortsiktiga coronapolitiken
Sammanfattning: This paper analyses the Swedish government and the Swedish central bank's measures during the coronavirus pandemic and their effects on the economy in the short run and potential long run effects. By comparing the covid-19 pandemic with the Swedish crisis in the 1990s, and the financial crisis 2008-2009, differences and similarities are combined with previous studies to analyze what effect these measures have on: the number of bankruptcies, unemployment, change in USD/SEK, governments savings ratio, exploitation of the central bank's measures, and the household debt ratio. The results show that the measures have been successful in impending reduction in the short-term demand, hampering an increase in bankruptcies and flattening the rising unemployment. In the long-term, the companies’ avoidance of bankruptcy results in a strong capital stock which may be good for the long-term economic growth. At the same time, “zombie companies” and moral hazard may likely increase due to subsidies. Also, an increase in the household debt-ratio, as a result of the low-interest rate and removal of the amortization requirements, could result in a new crisis down the road. This, combined with a stronger Swedish krona, may slow down the economic recovery. However, due to the uncertainty of the duration of the pandemic and how the virus may develop, the precision of the long-term estimates might be low.
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