SWOT-PESTEL Study of Constraints to Decarbonization of the Natural Gas System in the EU Techno-economic analysis of hydrogen production in Portugal : Techno-economic analysis of hydrogen production in Portugal

Sammanfattning: The exigent need to address climate change and its adverse effects is felt all around the world. As pioneers in tackling carbon emissions, the European Union continue to be head and shoulders above other continents by implementing policies and keeping a tab on its carbon dependence and emissions. However, being one of the largest importers of Natural Gas in the world, the EU remains dependent on a fossil fuel to meet its demands.  The aim of the research is to investigate the barriers and constraints in the EU policies and framework that affects the natural gas decarbonization and to investigate the levelized cost of hydrogen production (LCOH) that would be used to decarbonize the natural gas sector. Thus a comprehensive study, based on existing academic and scientific literature, EU policies, framework and regulations pertinent to Natural gas and a techno economic analysis of possible substitution of natural gas with Hydrogen, is performed. The motivation behind choosing hydrogen is based on various research studies that indicate the importance and ability to replace to natural gas. In addition, Portugal provides a great environment for cheap green hydrogen production and thus chosen as the main region of evaluation.  The study evaluates the current framework based on a SWOT ((Strength, Weakness, and Opportunities & Weakness) analysis, which includes a PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental & Legal) macroeconomic factor assessment and an expert elicitation. The levelized cost of hydrogen is calculated for blue (SMR - Steam Methane Reforming with natural gas as the feedstock) and green hydrogen (Electrolyzer with electricity from grid, solar and wind sources). The costs were specific to Portuguese conditions and for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 based on availability of data and the alignment with the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) and the climate action framework 2050. The sizes of Electrolyzers are based on the current Market capacities while SMR is capped at 300MW. The thesis only considers production of hydrogen. Transmission, distribution and storage of hydrogen are beyond the scope of the analysis.  Results show that the barriers are mainly related to costs competitiveness, amendments in rules/regulations, provisions of incentives, and constraints in the creation of market demand for low carbon gases. Ensuring energy security and supply while being economically feasible demands immediate amendments to the regulations and policies such as incentivizing supply, creating a demand for low carbon gases and taxation on carbon.  Considering the LCOH, the cheapest production costs continue to be dominated by blue hydrogen (1.33 € per kg of H2) in comparison to green hydrogen (4.27 and 3.68 € per kg of H2) from grid electricity and solar power respectively. The sensitivity analysis shows the importance of investments costs and the efficiency in case of electrolyzers and the carbon tax in the case of SMR. With improvements in electrolyzer technologies and increased carbon tax, the uptake of green hydrogen would be easier, ensuring a fair yet competitive gas market.