Ekonomisk tillväxt och välfärd - Välfärdsbidraget Bolsa Familias påverkan på Brasiliens ekonomiska tillväxt i en utvidgad modellanalys

Sammanfattning: Growth theory is a controversial and topical subject in today’s debate since it’s in many contexts is seen as a potential solution on the reduction of poverty. There are several models that clarify the factors that contribute to a country’s economic growth. A commonly used model to describe countries that themselves are not seen as a driving force in the development of new technology is the technology diffusion model. Further, Bolsa Familia is a conditional cash transfer program that was introduced in Brazil in 2004. The aim is in the short-run to reduce poverty within the country and in the long-run to build up human capital. By using an enlarged version of the technology diffusion model a simulation will be made to calculate the impact of Bolsa Familia on the economic growth in Brazil within a hundred-year period. The simulation showed that Bolsa Familia will contribute to a very significant increase in Brazil’s GDP per capita. Within a period of one hundred years Bolsa Familia will increase Brazil’s potential steady state by 35%.