Den strategiska maktkampen - En teoriprövande fallstudie av Socialdemokraternas och Moderaternas påverkan på Sverigedemokraternas elektorala framgång

Sammanfattning: The purpose of this study is to develop a further understanding of how mainstream parties and their strategy use can alter the electoral outcome of niche parties. This study centers on Sweden; the niche party in question is Sverigedemokraterna whereas the mainstream parties are Socialdemokraterna and Moderaterna. This is a theory testing case study of Bonnie M. Meguid’s modified version of the Spatial Theory. According to Meguid, mainstream parties and what strategy they use play an important role in the success of niche parties. The hypothesis is that the expected niche party electoral outcome depends on which strategy, or combination of strategies, mainstream parties use. They can either use an adversarial, a dismissive or an accommodating strategy. To be able to distinguish what strategies are being used, this essay analyses a sample of election manifestos from the Manifesto Project Database. More specifically, as comparative empirical data, the manifestos of Socialdemokraterna and Moderaterna from 2010, 2014 and 2018 are being used. The analysis is further validated by incorporating opinion polls, secondary election analysis, news articles and statements made by politicians of the mainstream parties. The research concludes that based on their manifestos the two Swedish mainstream parties have been using different combinations of either a dismissive or an accommodating strategy during the chosen time period. The hypothesis of the combination of these strategies does not correspond with the electoral outcome of the niche party. However, the analysis shows that this could be explained due to the strategies not being implemented in time. In addition, the sources being used to validate the results from the manifestos imply that the mainstream parties not only have used either dismissive or accommodating strategies; simultaneously, they have used other strategies as well. Consequently, it is difficult to disregard Bonnie Meguid’s theory based on the results of this study.