Aktieanalytikers träffsäkerhet : Beror skillnader i konsensusriktkursers träffsäkerhet på bolagens storlek?

Detta är en Magister-uppsats från Linköpings universitet/Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling; Linköpings universitet/Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling

Sammanfattning: Background Equity research analysts publish reports containing recommendations and target prices for stocks. A lot of research has been carried out on the subject of accuracy in earnings per share forecasts. Studies have also been made regarding target price accuracy on different markets and for bigger companies. This study concerns the target price accuracy on the Swedish market and for companies from the lists OMX Stockholm Small Cap-, Mid Cap- and Large Cap. The difference from earlier studies is therefore the focus on target price accuracy difference between large and small companies. Aim The aim of this thesis is to analyze the target price accuracy on the Swedish market and compare this accuracy between big and small companies to see if there is any connection between company size and target price accuracy. Completion The study has been conducted with a quantitative method and a deductive approach. Data for 98 companies on the Swedish market has been collected to be able to calculate the absolute forecasting error for three, six- and twelve-month horizons. The absolute forecasting error is then analysed through a regression to be able to see if there is any connection between the absolute forecasting error and the variables beta, difference between highest and lowest target price, difference between target price and actual price, market capitalization, sales, trading volume and volatility. The accuracy has also been studied by looking at if the target price has been reached during the same time horizons. Results The results of this study show that the ratios of achieved buy recommendations and hold recommendations are higher for constituents of OMX Stockholm Large Cap whilst sell recommendations are more often achieved for OMX Stockholm Small Cap and OMX Stockholm Mid Cap constituents. Most differences are statistically significant at least at a 5% level of significance. The regressions show that at three and six-month horizons a higher Beta and trading volume leads to a smaller absolute forecasting error. Increased discrepancy, absolute target price potential, market capitalization, sales and volatility lead to a higher absolute forecasting error. At a twelve-month horizon, the absolute forecasting error has a positive relationship with discrepancy, absolute target price potential, market capitalization, trading volume and volatility. Beta and sales show a negative relationship with the absolute forecasting error.

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