Inkrementell responsanalys av Scandnavian Airlines medlemmar : Vilka kunder ska väljas vid riktad marknadsföring?

Detta är en Kandidat-uppsats från Linköpings universitet/Statistik och maskininlärning; Linköpings universitet/Statistik och maskininlärning

Sammanfattning: Scandinavian Airlines has a large database containing their Eurobonus members. In order to analyze which customers they should target with direct marketing, such as emails, uplift models have been used. With a binary response variable that indicates whether the customer has bought or not, and a binary dummy variable that indicates if the customer has received the campaign or not conclusions can be drawn about which customers are persuadable. That means that the customers that buy when they receive a campaign and not if they don't are spotted. Analysis have been done with one campaign for Sweden and Scandinavia. The methods that have been used are logistic regression with Lasso and logistic regression with Penalized Net Information Value. The best method for predicting purchases is Lasso regression when comparing with a confusion matrix. The variable that best describes persuadable customers in logistic regression with PNIV is Flown (customers that have own with SAS within the last six months). In Lassoregression the variable that describes a persuadable customer in Sweden is membership level1 (the rst level of membership) and in Scandinavia customers that receive campaigns with delivery code 13 are persuadable, which is a form of dispatch.

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