Vegetation Wars: Effects of Long-term Climate Change on Violent Intergroup Conflict in the Sahel Region 2010-2016

Sammanfattning: There is a widely-held belief that global climate change will lead to several adverse consequences, one of them being an increased likelihood of violence on the African continent. This study investigates these claims by studying the links between climate change and violent intergroup conflict in the Sahel region 2010-2016. Using high-resolution satellite data, the incidence and intensity of violence in the area of study is analyzed with an unprecedented degree of spatial accuracy. After controlling for various variables thought to influence the outbreak of conflict, as well as employing a number of robustness checks, the results indicate that areas more severely affected by long-term decreases in average vegetative conditions were more likely to experience violent events in the studied time period. On average, an absolute 20-year decrease in the five-year mean of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of 10% corresponded to an increase of the likelihood of violence erupting in a particular area with around 1.3% in the main model. The results are in line with previous research linking worsening environmental conditions to violent intergroup conflict, strengthening the case that the security aspects of global climate change should be highly prioritized in the future in both research and policymaking.