Why is Uganda experiencing a stall in fertility decline and what implications does the high desired fertility have for the fertility transition? - A case study of Uganda as a deviant case of the Demographic Transition Theory

Sammanfattning: WHO The World Health Organisation (WHO) recognises that demographic trends play an essential role in the overall development of a country and improvements in economic, social and health conditions. One of the grand theories of population studies is the Demographic Transition Theory, a linear and universal model of population change. The greatest challenge to the Demographic Transition Theory’s descriptive validity has been from the Sub-Saharan African region. However, recent evidence from Demographic Health Surveys has shown a consistent pattern of fertility decline across all countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in all countries except one — Uganda. By analysing Uganda as the critical case of the Demographic Transition Theory (hereafter DTT), this study aims to answer the questions: Why is Uganda experiencing a stall in fertility decline and what implication does the high desired fertility have for the fertility transition? Further, the intent of this thesis is to explore the knowledge generated so far on this particular case, as well as to find contradictions and gaps in current research. The aim is not to find clear and definite answers to why Uganda is not following the assumed pattern. The DDT will be used as a foundation from which this thesis will locate and analyze knowledge and research gaps. Since this study assumes that the model is insufficient in explaining the case of Uganda, a set of middle-range theories will be used to link reproductive behaviour to more defined aspects of social life. The goal in this research is not to establish theoretical generalisability across other countries or regions, but to generate internal validity in the case of Uganda. This literature review has proven that utilising the same statistical data often results in varied findings and conclusions. Therefore, the intent to contribute to the perspective of both explanatory background variables, as well as proximate determinants, should be used when studying fertility behaviour. While demography may be quantitative in its nature, qualitative studies on the subject are needed.