Balansering av Sveriges elsystem år 2040 – En teknoekonomisk analys
Sammanfattning: Sweden's future electricity system is facing a transformation, where nuclear power will gradually be phased out, while there is a large expansion of wind power. The declining wind power prices, together with Sweden's goal of a 100% renewable electricity system in 2040, makes it an attractive resource. However, a change from a secure supply of energy from nuclear production, to a more variable with wind power, can lead to challenges for the electricity system to continuously achieve power balance. If these periods of power deficit occur, then additional balance power will need to be added to the system. The purpose of this report is to investigate the need for balance power, in an electricity system with a high proportion of wind power in 2040. Two scenarios for Sweden's electricity generation and electricity use have been investigated in the report. The first scenario is a 100% renewable electricity system, while the second scenario contains a certain part of today's nuclear power. These systems have been modeled and results for future power and energy balances have been produced. Subsequently, five different resources were investigated, which in the future are thought to play a greater role in helping with balance power. These were gas turbines, utility-scale battery storage, pumped hydro storage, and demand response from industry and households. The results show that the system primarily faces a power problem. Depending on the scenario, there are 6-7.6 GW missing in the system. At most, power shortages occur 5% of all hours of the year. However from an energy point of view, the shortage can be considered marginal, as it is missing at most 0.5% of annual production. The lengths of the power deficits have also been investigated. From the analysis and modellingof balance alternatives, it was seen that gas turbines were advantageous because of their ability to produce energy continuously, for which this became a limitation for utility-scale battery storage and pumped hydro storage as they discharge. Costs for different balance alternatives were calculated and compared. The least expensive system consisted solely of gas turbines. Since it is mainly the intermittency of wind power that give rise to these costs, it was also investigated what the production cost of electricity from wind power together with a balancing cost was, compared with that for nuclear power. The results showed that wind power together with the cost of balancing was several times lower. The simulations also witnessed that a more prolonged and large-scale demand response from industry was able to lower costs of balancing. The report's main conclusion is that a fully renewable electricity system is possible in 2040 and that the cost of the imbalances caused by wind power is nothigh enough to justify investments in new nuclear power.
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