Uncertainty Analysis of the Aerodynamic Coefficients

Sammanfattning: This thesis treats an error propagation analysis used to estimate the uncertainty of the aerodynamic coefficients. The propagation methods used in this analysis are a Taylor Series Method and a Monte Carlo Method. The Taylor Series Method uses the partial derivatives of each input variable whereas the Monte Carlo Method uses random and repeated samples from the probability density function of each variable. By comparing the results obtained by the different methods, the results can be validated. Coverage intervals with a coverage probability of 95% are calculated along with the percentage contribution each input variable has on the expanded uncertainty. The results showed that the uncertainty of the coefficients varied between 10% and 20% and negligible differences between the methods were observed. More accurate measurements of the dynamic pressure and the position of the center of gravity are needed in order to decrease the uncertainty.