Persistence of Social Exclusion in Tanzania

Sammanfattning: Social exclusion is a practice where individuals are fully or partially excluded from social, economic and cultural networks. The concept of social exclusion is multidimensional, and is associated to different economic, social, political and culture aspects. This paper analyses the causes which bring dynamics in the social exclusion. Specifically, I explore the reasons which make an individual who experience social exclusion today, is likely to experience the same in the future. Literature suggests two processes underlying the causes of persistence in social exclusion. One argument is that, individuals are heterogeneous in terms of observed and unobserved adverse features which are important for someone to experience social exclusion over time (heterogeneity). On the other hand, individuals may experience social exclusion due to state dependence, that is, experiencing social exclusion in particular time, may itself incite the chances of experiencing the same in subsequent periods. Differentiating the two processes is important because, policy consequences underlying the the two social exclusion processes are also different. Using Tanzania National Panel Survey data (TZNPS), results show how both heterogeneity and state dependence are connected to the probability of experiencing social exclusion in Tanzania. Results suggest that the probability to experience social exclusion is to a large extent explained by observed heterogeneity and state dependence. There is a higher probability of experiencing social exclusion in the future for those who are socially excluded today compared to those who are not socially excluded. The impact on the dynamics of the past is significant and is more than 6% on average. The findings call for a comprehensive and organized strategies against social exclusion that should focus on policies which improve features that best protect against economic hardships.