Evaluating risk and reward for validators in a cryptocurrency Proof-of-Stake network

Sammanfattning: This thesis is one in a group of several theses that are researching different subjects in the development of a new cryptocurrency. For a few years now, the cryptocurrency market has grown dramatically, in the lead of the original cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Today, most cryptocurrencies' validation-technology, including Bitcoin's, are based on Proof-of-Work (PoW), i.e., a system where transaction validation is made by servers calculating mathematical problems. PoW results in high energy consumption and slow transaction speed. In this cryptocurrency, the validation mechanism will build on a technology called Proof-of-Stake (PoS). PoS does not yield as high energy consumption and often leads to faster transaction speed. The specific technique for validation in this system is that validators bet their coins to validate transactions and get rewards in the form of transaction fees if they end up conforming the transactions that reach consensus among the validators. In particular, the purpose of this report is to research the risk and reward for validators in the betting process and from this develop a reward policy which yields a fast and secure validation. The methods used for solving the problems are simulations based on Monte Carlo methods. From the simulations, the results are discussed and compared. Also, this report will cover economic theories behind cryptocurrencies, mainly focusing on monetary policy and the transaction markets. The findings of this report are several risk functions for different topologies and winning conditions considered during the development of the cryptocurrency. Further, a conclusion was that the expected value of profit for validators need to be constant, independent of when the bets are made with regard to previous bets. From this, a reward function which distributes rewards between winning validators was formed. Another, economical conclusion from this was that, in the long run, the expected value of profit of betting should converge to zero due to a perfect competition market.