Aktieprediktion med neurala nätverk : En jämförelse av statistiska modeller, neurala nätverk och kombinerade neurala nätverk

Sammanfattning: This study is about prediction of the stockmarket through a comparison of neural networks and statistical models. The study aims to improve the accuracy of stock prediction. Much of the research made on predicting shares deals with statistical models, but also neural networks and then mainly the types RNN and CNN. No research has been done on how these neural networks can be combined, which is why this study aims for this. Tests are made on statistical models, neural networks and combined neural networks to predict stocks at minute level. The result shows that a combination of two neural networks of type RNN gives the best accuracy in the prediction of shares. The accuracy of the predictions increases further if these combined neural networks are trained to predict different time horizons. In addition to tests for accuracy, simulations have also been made which also confirm that there is some possibility to predict shares. Two combined RNNs gave best results, but in the simulations, even CNN made good predictions. One conclusion can be drawn that the stock market is not entirely effective as some opportunity to predict future values exists. Another conclusion is that neural networks are better than statistical models to predict stocks if the neural networks are combined and are of type RNN.