RUSSIAN REGIONAL SCENARIOS OF FERTILITY RESPONSES TO MODERNIZATION, 1958-1978.

Sammanfattning: The link “modernization-fertility” is an important object for analysis. Modernization changes every society economically, culturally, demographically. I analyze the empirical data for two Russian regions based on Easterlin-Сrimmins theoretical model and make conclusions concerning the strength of possible modernization-fertility relationship in Russia. I consider gross fertility to investigate the nature of linkage between crude birth rate, infant mortality, share of industrial workers in population, net migration and regional differences in fertility response to modernization. The results show that despite regional differences in the speed and scope of modernization, different initial starting points and cultural background, two regions have the same scenarios of fertility responses to modernization – the same trajectory of development. Decline in infant mortality was important for fertility reduction. However, opposite Easterlin and Crimmins, there is no evidence that high industrialization level associates with lower gross fertility.