How useful are intraday data in Risk Management? : An application of high frequency stock returns of three Nordic Banks to the VaR and ES calculation

Detta är en Magister-uppsats från Högskolan i Halmstad/Sektionen för Informationsvetenskap, Data– och Elektroteknik (IDE); Högskolan i Halmstad/Sektionen för Informationsvetenskap, Data– och Elektroteknik (IDE)

Sammanfattning:

The work is focused on the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfallcalculation. We assume the returns to be based on two pillars - the white noise and the stochastic volatility. We assume that the white noise follows the NIG distribution and the volatility is modeled using the nGARCH, NIG-GARCH, tGARCH and the non-parametric method. We apply the models into the stocks of three Banks of the Nordic market. We consider the daily and the intraday returns with the frequencies 5, 10, 20 and 30 minutes. We calculate the one step ahead VaR and ES for the daily and the intraday data. We use the Kupiec test and the Markov test to assess the correctness of the models. We also provide a new concept of improving the daily VaR calculation by using the high frequency returns. The results show that the intraday data can be used to the one step ahead VaR and the ES calculation. The comparison of the VaR for the end of the following trading day calculated on the basis of the daily returns and the one computed using the high frequency returns shows that using the intraday data can improve the VaR outcomes.

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