Insights from a panarchy approach to the resilience of a social-ecological system: the case of La Marjaleria (Castelló, Spain)

Sammanfattning: The idea of evolutionary resilience in complex systems has gained attention in the recent years. This approach provides better insights in the context of emergence and adaptive capacity, that characterises complex adaptive systems (CAS) such as social-ecological systems (SES), than traditional reductionist and engineering resilience approaches. Departing from this premise, a set of methodologies that are funded in these principles have been developed, with promising perspectives for the analysis of these systems. In this thesis, one of these methodologies, the panarchy, is applied into La Marjaleria case study, in Castelló (Spain), in order to explore its capacity to offer new useful insights for the management of the area throught he scope of resilience. Looking for a systematic methodological approach, the focal SES and their scales are initially defined, followed by an adaptive cycle approach, performed for each of the scales, and finally a panarchy approach that is applied through focusing on the interactions between the adaptive cycles at the different scales. The results are also presented through a new graphic approach that accounts for the representation of the adaptive cycles at the different scales and their interactions in a dynamic manner that includes the time variable, and that can therefore facilitate its understanding. From the analysis performed, the system is found to be stuck in a rigidity trap because of the lack of transformative visions from both scales above (municipality) and below (households). Furthermore, the influence of cascade effects from both the upper and lower scale in the manner through which the focal scale navigated the adaptive cycle has become evident. The panarchy has also helped to discover some existing mismatches and archetypes affecting the system. After all, a general resilience assessment has helped to find out that the system presents a low resilience, and therefore an inherent risk of collapse in the event of external shocks that can make thresholds to be crossed. A further analysis, focused on the specific resilience, has been performed for the risk of flooding. The results show that the engineering resilience approach through which this risk has been traditionally managed could have helped to underestimate flood hazard and therefore contributed to an irresponsible occupation of the floodable area. New approaches towards resilience risk management could help to address the problematics caused by floods and also open new opportunities for long-term sustainability of the system. The panarchy approach can offer useful insights for the assessment of SES from the scope of complexity and multi-scale interactions, providing an approach consistent with the evolutionary resilience characteristic of CAS. However, there still exist some gaps, both in its perception by practitioners and in the availability of solid grounds towards the standardization of its application, implying that there is still room for further improvement in this methodological approach.