Turkey as a Member of the European Union - A cross-country analysis of the potential impact on the Turkish agricultural sector and its trade with the EU

Sammanfattning: This study examines Turkey’s agricultural sector and how it will be affected by a EU membership. Since Turkey has a great rural population and is relatively dependent on its agriculture, the implementation of the CAP will most probably affect not only the rural community, but also the specialization patterns in agriculture and the trade. The aim of this study is to estimate these changes and draw conclusions about what the major consequences for the Turkish agricultural sector will be. The study will estimate the plausible outcomes in two different ways. First of all, four EU countries with similar agricultural characteristics with Turkey will be analyzed. In this way, we compare Turkey with current EU members and hence draw general conclusion about what the membership might bring. Secondly, we will use the revealed comparative advantage method in order to estimate in what agricultural commodities Turkey has a comparative advantage or disadvantage. We can conclude that a EU membership will most probably make the Turkish agriculture sector less volatile, both when it comes to prices and trade volumes. With a common agricultural policy and an increased integration, competition will increase and the prices harmonize with the ones of the EU. The sector will become more specialized and as a consequence, many farmers might be forced to migrate from the rural areas and find work elsewhere. In the long-term, however, the EU funding and assistance will stimulate the rural areas, making it more attractive for people to live there without necessarily being involved in agricultural activities.