Planning support for reducing risks related to flooding : A case study of flood response in Kista residential area and Igelbäcken stream, Sweden

Sammanfattning: Flooding has been identified as the most widespread and most frequently occurring natural disaster by the United Nation. Sweden is no exception when it comes to being affected by flooding, and several major flood events have been seen in recent years. The Swedish National Board of Building, Housing and Planning published a report on climate adaption in 2010 where they stated that Sweden is missing over all strategies and goals meet the demands of more frequent and intense rain events. Present thesis aimed to develop planning support for integration of hydrological perspectives in urban planning to manage water related risks such as flooding and high water levels. This was done through hydrodynamic modelling in MIKE FLOOD, developed by the DHI, where a 1D stream model was coupled with a 2D free-surface flow model. The model was run for three different scenarios reflecting current conditions (Scenario 1), climate change (Scenario 2) and land use change (Scenario 3). The study area chosen for present study was Kista residential area, located northwest of Stockholm, and part of Igelbäcken stream that runs by Kista. Igelbäcken stream was represented by a 1D stream model in the software MIKE 11 provided by DHI and Järfälla municipality, whereas a 2D model in MIKE 21 for Kista and the stream surroundings was setup throughout the project. Data was provided by Stockholm Vatten och Avfall and processed in ArcMap before it could be used in the modelling. The MIKE 21 model required data regarding topography, land use, and precipitation. A 100-year flood, based on a series of designed rain events with various duration and intensity, was used as precipitation input to replicated a hypothetical major rain event. Flooding in Scenario 2 was more extensive than flooding in Scenario 1, which was expected since Scenario 2 was based on a 100-year flood with a climate change factor of 1.25 and projection for year 2100. Scenario 3, which represented a “worst case” scenario with all planned exploitation of Kista identified as impermeable surface, forced the water to move further down in the topography compared with Scenario 1. Several buildings were more or less surrounded by at least 0.3 meter of water in Scenario 3. Water levels in Igelbäcken stream were strongly affected by the rain events and showed an increase of 0.4, 0.9, and 0.4 meter for the three scenarios at the end of the simulations which lasted for six hours. In conclusion, findings of present study show larger flooding extent that previously performed studies in the area and they reflect fast response in Igelbäcken stream with respect to increased water level. Indicating that effects from major rain events should not be underestimated. Furthermore, the findings could prove useful for identification of major runoff pathways and identification of suitable locations for multifunctional with respect to infiltration and retardation, if available at an early stage in the planning process. Thus, this type of study could prove useful for integration of hydrology in the urban planning process.