Mycotoxins – an increasing problem? : the effects of climate changes on Fusarium mould populations and the occurrence of fusaro toxins in Swedish cereals

Sammanfattning: Future changes in climate are expected to affect Sweden in the form of an up to 40 % increase in precipitation and a mean temperature that will be elevated by 3 - 4.5 °C by the end of the 21st century. These are conditions that presumably favour growth of Fusarium moulds. The infection of cereal crops by toxigenic species of this fungal genera can lead to the production of toxins with acute or chronic effects in humans and animals. This study was conducted to evaluate the poten-tial effects of climate changes on toxigenic Fusarium fungi and their toxins in Swedish cereals, and how these effects might influence food safety. Different factors affecting toxin contamination were surveyed, and it was evaluated whether climatic changes could be a crucial fac-tor. It was found that the occurrence of mycotoxins in Swedish cere-als is already widespread, and that a trend of increasing toxin contents has been observed in Nordic cereals. Although the mycotoxin prob-lem is complex and many factors, such as crop rotation and soil man-agement, influence the toxin levels in cereals, it was found that weather conditions led to the highest increases in toxin concentra-tions. Thus, it was concluded that the future will bring increased problems with mycotoxins. The exposure of Swedish consumers to mycotoxins today does not exceed the TDI, and EFSA has expressed that no concern exists for the general population. However, in Swe-den, the consumption of healthy foods such as nuts and vegetarian foods has increased, a trend which could result in an increased expo-sure to mycotoxins since these foodstuffs can be infected by moulds. In addition, Swedish consumers are exposed to mycotoxins through a variety of foods of different origin, and the import of cereal based products has increased. The expected global increase in toxin contam-ination of foods will thus also affect consumers and might lead to a co-exposure to several mycotoxins. This could imply risks for some consumer groups, especially since the adverse effects of exposure to a combination of toxins are not completely known. It was concluded that the mycotoxin problem should be carefully monitored.