“Vad ska vi äta?” - en prognos om hur exploatering av åkermark och export av spannmål påverkar Sveriges förmåga till självförsörjning av spannmål.

Sammanfattning: This study analyze how the exploitation of agricultural land affects Sweden's ability to remain self-sufficient in grain, and the consequences that arise when agricultural land with the highest classification is disappearing the fastest. As the population increases the food production must also increase at the same pace. An important crops for Sweden's food supply is grain and it stands for a large portion of the food consumed in Sweden. Since the midfifties, Sweden's arable land has been reduced and the need for grain has increased, mostly because of the increasing in production of meat products that require large quantities of grain to products. A reduced meat consumption extends the likely period of time that Sweden can be selfsufficient in grain consumption, but this change cannot be considered likely to achieve. To reduce meat consumption to an amount that does not affect grain production the meat consumption must drop by 40% by the year 2036 and continue to drop in order to maintain the domestic production at the same level. The cultivation of new farmland should not be seen as a compensation for the disappearance of old farmland. Land reclamation is expensive and produces even after several decades of land use significantly less yields than older farmland The best and most productive farmland is unfortunately the land that is disappearing the fastest because of exploitation. If the most productive land is preserved, a small area can produce the same amount of grain on a surface that is only a third of the size of the arable land of lower quality. The study shows that even if all exploitation subsides and no export of grain occurs, Sweden within 35 years will be unable to produce enough grain to be selfsufficient if no change occurs in the population’s food consumption habits. The consequences of the exploitation is that Sweden in the future will not have sufficient arable land to remain self-sufficient in grain, and have to rely on importing sufficient quantities.