Arabisk vår, men kom demokratin in i värmen?

Sammanfattning: The Arab Spring broke out in the MENA-region in 2011 in the guise of a series of mass protests demanding political and regime change. The rebellion was triggered by a long period of autocratic rule which for the region’s citizens had meant social injustice, economic complications, oppression and lack of political and human rights. The purpose of this study is to examine the democratization process in Tunisia and Egypt in connection with the Arab Spring. The two countries are similar in terms of political history, religion, language and culture, and during the Arab Spring the advancement of democracy was initially evident in both Tunisia and Egypt, but over time led to divergence between them. In the period after the uprisings, there was a regime change in both Tunisia and Egypt, but only Tunisia managed to establish a democratic governance. By using a comparative method, this essay seeks to answer the following question: During the period after the Arab Spring, how come that the democratization in Tunisia was more successful than the regime change in Egypt? Consequently, it is interesting to investigate which factors gave rise to the divergence between the countries. Therefore the study takes a theoretical outset in Robert Dahl’s fundamental and favorable conditions for democracy. Focusing on the units of analysis, Tunisia and Egypt, can be fruitful for examining how and why some countries succeed better in the transition to a democratic political system, and which factors for success and challenges that plays a role in such a process. In addition, it also provides insights into how economic, cultural, religious, political and social dynamics can affect the democratization of a nation. However, the study will show that one of Dahl’s fundamental conditions, control of the military and police, is indeed a fundamental explanatory variable as to why Egypt failed to establish a democracy, while Tunisia succeeded.