Resultatjusteringar - En nödvändighet eller möjlighet för aktieanalytiker?

Sammanfattning: Prior research has found that target prices often are inaccurate and overoptimistic. Furthermore, studies have found that several factors affect target price accuracy, for example earnings forecasts. However, the field of research concerning the relationship between exclusions and target price accuracy is still relatively unexplored. Exclusions are made by analysts and often contains subjective decisions. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate whether the size of exclusions affects target price accuracy. The study investigates this by a regression analysis using Swedish companies listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during 2006-2015. The results indicate that absolute exclusions are not a significant factor affecting target price accuracy for listed companies in Sweden but that Swedish analysts are more accurate and less optimistic than what has been found in other countries. Finally, when looking at target price accuracy during the observed period the study found that target price accuracy tends to follow the economic cycle with lower accuracy during the financial crisis in 2008.