DCF-modellering vid multipelvärdering: En empirisk studie av hybrida värderingsmodellers prediktionsförmåga

Sammanfattning: Today, there are a number of different models and methods used to estimate the equity value of a company. A common tool for valuating stock prices is the usage of different multiples. This is a method used to determine the value of a company, by examining and comparing the financial ratios of relevant peer groups. The disadvantage with this method is that it does not take all the important aspects, such as risk, investments and capital structure, into consideration. However, this study investigates if the key value, called discounted cash flow (DCF), can be integrated with the valuation of the multiples. By using correlation and regression analyses, we investigated 30 companies listed in the industrial sector on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. With a correlation coefficient of 0.69, the result shows that the estimated DCF value can be used to predict the stock price in a better way than all the other traditional key values such as earnings, sales and book value. Proven in this study, not only does the DCF value give a higher accuracy, it also turns out to be a good complement to the other key values, since it carries 6.3 % unique information.