A Quantitative Framework for Constructing a Multi-Asset CTA with a Momentum-Based Approach

Sammanfattning: Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have gained popularity due to their abilities to generate an absolute return strategy. Little is known about how CTAs work and what variables are important to tune in order to create a profitable strategy. Some investors use CTA-like strategies to leverage their portfolio and create positive returns in times when the spot market is falling. The report is written for Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken and aims to give the bank and readers an understanding on how changes of parameters in a CTA strategy change the outcome of it with focus on three main measurements: Sharpe ratio, drawdown and total return.  The foundation of CTAs is that they rely on signals from some given sets of assets and make investments decisions solely based on them. CTAs can be rule-based with a binomial signal, or they can use a continual signal, like in the report. The thesis aims to recreate a CTA using a continuous momentum signal and with the signal, invest accordingly. Some different variables were tested, most importantly the report focuses on the weights of the assets and investigates if the momentum signal is good as it is or if a risk parity weighting is needed on top of the signal in order to generate a return that matches the expectations of a low drawdown and a high Sharpe ratio.  Beyond the weight allocation, different lookback periods of both the signal and weight were tested. A shorter lookback generated a quicker return that was more sensible to short trends on the market. Which in some cases was profitable but it also lost more of it accumulated return when the trend was "false". The equally weighted signal that only takes the trend into account when allocating the weights of the assets was more volatile it its returns and benefited from a long signal. The CTA results presented can only be seen as an index since it is rebalanced every rebalancing point, the frequency of those points was examined and the strategy was performing well if rebalanced once a week or once a month, every day and once a year did not yield a better result.  As expected, the CTA benefits from trend on the market, no matter the direction of it. The best periods for the CTA were when the market was very volatile, mainly 2008 and 2022. When there is no clear trend, the CTA reacts too slowly and often loses money. One important conclusion is that the CTA never should be used as an investment strategy on its own, rather as a hedging strategy that allocates a fraction of a total long-only portfolio.