In Trade and War : An analysis of interdependence theory and Russo-German gas relations

Sammanfattning: The European security order has for an extended period of time time rested on the assumption that interstate trade, and other economic ties, will lower the incentives for conflict initiation and thereby result in peace. This assumption was called into question on February 24, 2022, by the Russian re-invasion of Ukraine. Germany, as one of Europe’s primary proponents of interdependence, especially in its trade relationship to Russia defined by the pipeline natural gas, spirals into an energy crisis. How did it come to this? This thesis is an exploration of the concept of interdependence and its theoretical framework. Using congruence method, this thesis maps the internal processes of the concept, through two pieces of seminal research on interdependence theory – Robert O. Keohane & Joseph S. Nye’s Power and Interdependence and Dale C. Copeland’s Economic Interdependence and War – and their respective ability to comprehend the case of Russo-German gas relations. The results show that the two theoretical interpretations can, although not with equal strength, to a certain degree predict the outcome of the Russo-German case. In spite of this, the theories struggle to capture the existence of regional conflict, and the slight contradiction that the Russo-German relationship continued to deepen after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.