Ageing Populations and World Trade: Blight or Blessing?

Sammanfattning: Since the last half of the twentieth century, population ageing has increasingly become a problem for countries all over the world. The literature on population ageing is very well- established, however, it is lacking in one significant respect. That is, hardly any research has been done on how population ageing may affect international trade. Therefore, this thesis seeks to establish this effect. As populations age, their old-age demographic dependency ratios increase. Furthermore, following life-cycle theory, the private consumption of the elderly decreases. With these facts in mind, an extensive gravity model of international trade is estimated, to gauge the effect of ageing on international trade, both through the use of dependency ratios, as well as self-constructed consumption ratios. Data from the NTA and AGENTA projects are used for these. I find support for my hypotheses that bilateral trade decreases as the dependency ratio of the importer, or the consumption ratio of the importer increases, but I find only partial support for my hypothesis that bilateral trade decreases in categories where the elderly are expected to consume less. Still, I find that the population age structure, and thus population ageing, influences bilateral trade, which is highly relevant for our ageing world.