Aggregation of Solar and Wind Power and its Impact on the Development of the Transmission Network : KTH Thesis Report

Sammanfattning: Variable renewable energy (VRE) is becoming more present in the energy mix as society aims to shift power production from fossil fuels. Solar and wind power are VRE sources, which can result in fluctuations in the input to the network, creating supply uncertainty. The Swedish Transmission system operator (TSO), Svenska kraftnät (Svk), is obliged to ensure stability in the network, which must be considered when approving applications for subscriptions of connections to the transmission network. In the stability investigations performed before approving applications, Svk assumes that solar and wind power produces at their maximum capacity at their connection point before approving applications, to ensure safe and stable power system operation under any weather conditions. However, this might be an over-conservative assumption as the share of VRE sources increases. This is because there is an anti-correlation between wind and solar power, which results in a few colliding hours when both produce at full capacity. This study investigates the correlation between solar and wind power, evaluates the probability of high wind and solar power production coinciding at different percentages of their capacity, and analyses the potential for aggregating them in the studies performed to approve connections to the transmission network. The research method applied was an inductive approach, where a statistical analysis using Pearson's correlation and conditional probability was conducted based on reanalysed data collected from ERA5 and STRÅNG databases. The analysis showed a weak complementary correlation coefficient for all time periods, and the probability of very high production coinciding is small. If it occurs, it is more likely to happen during the first part of the year. The results show a spatial correlation in the probability. By implementing integration strategies, the conclusion is that there is a controllable risk when increasing the capacity. Even if there is a risk, it can be worth taking as more VRE sources can be connected to the transmission network.