Premiepensionens Marknadsrisk : En Monte Carlo-simulering av den allmänna pensionen

Sammanfattning: A reforming trend is captured showing that countries are shifting from defined benefit pension systems towards defined contribution systems. The reforms have been justified through predictions that the defined benefit systems will not manage to provide good enough pensions to members in the future. The newer defined contribution pension plans often include individual financial accounts where individuals have the possibility to choose how a part of their pension savings should be invested. Sweden was early to introduce such a system, which at the moment provides more than 800 funds to choose from. The aim of this thesis is to capture the market risk associated with these individual investments and does so by using Monte Carlo simulations for six selected pension funds. The method produces forecasts of replacement ratios, pension as percentage of pre-retirement income, for two hypothetical individuals: one who starts to work right after elementary school and one individual who starts a five year education and after graduation starts to work. The results show a slightly lower replacement ratio for the educated individual, which also is associated with a higher probability of ending up with a low replacement ratio. The market risk also varies between the funds, which implies that the funds should be chosen with great care. The study ends with arguments for an increasing paternalism with a carefully considered fund offering, providing fewer funds to choose from than today.