African Climate Hazard Assessment - A composite index assessing national vulnerability to climate change

Sammanfattning: The study is compiled into a composite index for assessing the climate vulnerability of African nations. By employing a multidimensional approach, the index comprises nine distinctive hazards to examine a country’s sensitivity to climate change. These hazards are divided into three categories; acute physical hazards, chronic physical hazards and systemic hazards. This index structure is based on the established three dimensions of vulnerability; expected exposure to hazards, sensitivity to said hazard, and the ability to adapt and cope with the implied effects. The final index was composed of 61 indicators all scaled from 0 to 1, with the final hazard scores and the aggregated total employing higher scores to denote greater climate vulnerability. The results revealed the significant influence of a country’s systemic robustness when responding to climate change impacts, as the inclusion of systemic hazards had a considerable effect on the final aggregated score. The aggregated total score demonstrated how the risk profiles of vulnerable countries vary greatly, and that severe vulnerability to one or few hazards can amount to similar levels of risk as a widespread vulnerability to many different hazards. The index highlights that while some nations may endure more perilous climate change impacts, other nations with lower physical exposure may lack the necessary resources and organisational capacities to handle the risks, rendering them more susceptible. Somalia and South Sudan appeared the most vulnerable, primarily due to the current and historical burden experienced in all three systemic dimensions combined with high hazard exposure. Liberia faced the highest aggregated vulnerability to physical hazards, but its systemic efficiency allows them to better cope with these risks. Meanwhile, countries such as Cabo Verde and Tunisia showcased strong and more resilient systems, making them better placed to respond to climate change impacts. The index fills a vital role in offering valuable insights into the factors that render African nations vulnerable to climate change which provides guidance on allocating resources for adaptation and mitigation initiatives. It strives to convey the complex and intricate climate change impacts in a transparent and easy to understand manner while remaining relevant and actionable for policymakers. Lowering the threshold for assessing and comparing the vulnerability to climate change can act as a call to action and help further initiate the dialogue on climate change adaptation in Africa. The indicators used in the index can help guide policy-makers and other stakeholders in assessing future risks, find suitable adaptation efforts and track their progress towards climate resilience.