Fighting for Profit in Modern Warfare : A quantiative analysis of the influence of Private Military and Security Companies (PMSC’s) on conflict intensity in weak states

Sammanfattning: The influence of private actors within armed conflict is becoming increasingly relevant, as the market for private military and security companies (PMSC’s) is growing in tandem with new opportunities within the sector. Their involvement in many conflicts around the world suggest the demand for private actors is not likely to go away any time soon, as their professional approach to offering an advantage in settling conflicts might appeal to many contracting parties. Despite this however, there exists relatively little research on the influence of PMSCs on armed conflict dynamics. This study aims to investigate how PMSCs might decide to involve themselves in state-based armed conflicts in weak states and how these in turn would influence the overall intensity of that conflict. This thesis provides a causal explanation which suggests that conflicts where PMSCs provide direct combat support have higher levels of conflict intensity in terms of an increased number of battle-related deaths than those where PMSC involvement is limited to non-combat/assisting roles. This is motivated by a theoretical framework which suggests direct combat involvement leads to a higher number of battle-related deaths. The quantitative study includes a number of control variables which have previously been used in studies on conflict dynamics in terms of the onset of armed conflict, conflict duration and with theoretical frameworks applicable to conflict intensity. The quantitative section of the thesis involves a regression analysis which ultimately does not provide significant results for the proposed hypothesis. Lastly, some considerations are made for future research that could potentially improve the reliability and accuracy of studies that intend to incorporate private actors and their influence on conflict dynamics.