Weaponizing Ambiguity : How do nationalist political attitudes in pre-election periods influence anti-immigrant voting  in the MENA region?

Sammanfattning: This research paper explores the effect of nationalist attitudes on anti-immigrant voting, focusing on the securitisation of migrants and its influence on anti-immigrant sentiments as a causal mechanism. Previous research indicates a correlation between shock events such as a vast influx of migrants and the perception of competition as precursors to anti-immigrant voting. However, increased contact between groups due to forced proximity has been found to improve relationships and reduce anti-immigrant voting. This paper aims to develop the theory and investigate the extent to which another factor, nationalist attitudes in Kais Saied and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s pre-electoral speeches had an effect on anti-immigrant voting in 2018-2019. It tests the hypothesis that anti-immigrant voting increases when politicians use nationalist discourse before elections. The paper acknowledges the relevance of media coverage as an alternate explanatory factor.