Visualising uncertainty in aircraft cockpits : Is icon degradation an appropriate visualisation form

Sammanfattning: Visualising uncertainty information has been a research area for the past decade or so, and this thesis contains the results of an experiment that examines whether prior research on icon degradation for showing uncertainty can be used in a simulated aircraft cockpit environment. Using icon degradation has been suggested as being effective to combat overconfidence bias, as well as to accurately convey information about uncertainty. Two icon sets using icon degradation were taken from prior research, and one new icon set using shape change and colour change was created for comparison. Subjects flew a flight simulator while reading icons to evaluate the uncertainty displayed, and also evaluating their own confidence in their reading. The results show that shape change leads to much higher accuracy in reading icons, and slightly higher levels of confidence. Furthermore, icon degradation results in a higher variance in reading icons and an increase in errors when no time-pressure or distraction is present. This suggests that the suitability of icon degradation for showing uncertainty is questionable in all situations, and that other design approaches such as shape change should be considered. Furthermore, problems were uncovered in the prior research that the old icons were taken from, and these problems call into question the general approach used in that research. Keywords: Uncertainty visualisation, Naturalistic decision-making, NDM, Aviation, Aircraft cockpit, Decision support, Situation assessment, Threat assessment.