Analysis of pervasive climate risks to global rice production at the subnational level

Sammanfattning: Rice is a vital crop and main source of calories for half the global population, particularly in the GlobalSouth. Despite increasing demand for rice, climate change, urbanisation, and land use development arethreatening rice production and therefore food security. Although an extensive portfolio of researchexists on the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, previous studies have lacked highresolution data at the subnational level. These studies use climate data averaged to the national level(e.g. from FAO) and/or modelled global crop maps with poor spatial resolution, thus erasing importantlocal variations in climate, socio-economic and other productive conditions. By using data from theGlobal Subnational Agricultural Production Platform (GSAP), a new agricultural production dataset withdata at the subnational level for nearly every country in the world, specific climate and production riskscan be assigned to subnational rice-producing regions, thus allowing for a more detailed understandingof specific conditions affecting rice production and food security. In particular this study analyses theimpact of pervasive climate risks on rice production at the subnational level across nine keyrice-producing countries. This study uses a panel data regression to understand the contribution of temperature, precipitation,vapour pressure deficit and irrigation infrastructure to rice yields at the subnational level. Each of thethree climate indicators chosen for this study have been linked to rice yields and have been seen todiverge from historical trends due to climate change (Eck et al., 2020; Gebrechorkos at el., 2018; Lópezet al., 2021; Regoto et al., 2021). This study argues that solutions to food security and more sustainable agriculture need to be groundedon a better understanding of regional conditions, avoiding the use of data that do not capturespatio-temporal heterogeneity in productive conditions (e.g. national-level data). The results of thisstudy are the first providing subnational-level analysis of climate risks on rice production for several riceproducing countries, and show that regional differences in climatic and productive conditions result indifferent impacts on rice yield variability. With sufficient agricultural inputs, yields can be stabilisedthough are not fully resistant to climate variability. However, increasing variability and frequency ofextreme conditions threaten to increase production risks, while emphasising the need for moreresearch, and reforms in policy, planning, and investments.