Dynamic simulation of transforming the transport system - Based on Lotka-Volterra population modelling

Sammanfattning: The transport sector plays a critical role in meeting the targets of achieving net-zero emissions. In comparison to traditional fuel vehicles (ICEVs), new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles (EVs), have advantages of energy-saving and emission reduction. Despite policy plans for this transition, Sweden’s vehicle fleet is still predominantly composed by ICEVs. In order to enable an effective transition, models that create understanding of the dynamics of the transport system are necessary. This study aim's to simulate the dynamics of transitioning Sweden’s transport system in means of how the uptake of two different propulsion technologies might evolve. Specifically, the transition from the fossil-fuel dependent transport system, predominantly by ICEVs, towards an electrified transport system, consisting of EVs.  Considering the competition and substitution situation between ICEVs and EVs, a System Dynamic model is proposed to simulate the plausible trend of Sweden’s transport system based on the Lotka-Volterra population model. In addition to this, scenario analysis of the key model parameters is performed and their presumed effects is evaluated. The results of the plausible trend of Sweden’s transport system indicates that the model can be applied to reflect on the vehicle fleet evolution's and have potential to demonstrate trends and behaviour of the transport system. Nevertheless, in the scope of this thesis, the established system model includes some limitations and is not able to reflect on the complexity of the transport system fully - but this thesis, and the established system model can generate intuition on how the modelling approach can be applied and how factors can be integrated by which could explain the vehicle fleet evolution's.