Tvångsmakt och trovärdiga hot i krig : En teoriprövande fallstudie av trovärdighetsteorin Current Calculus Theory

Sammanfattning: During decades of analysing and theorising military coercion, there is still an absence of common understandings of what coercion consists of and what makes it successful. Despite those diversities, most of the coercion theories agree on that the credibility in threats is a condition for succeeding to influence an adversary. Daryl G. Press has presented a theory, Current Calculus Theory, to analyse the credibility in military threats. However, the theory is based on threats in military crisis with the focus on the actor exposed to the threats. The purpose of this study is therefore to examine the explanatory capability of the theory in coercion in war with perspective on the actor conducting the threats. The results show that the theory may be used to explain the credibility in military threats in war and not just crises, but restrictions in war that the theory does not include complicates the explanatory capability of it. For further analysis of credibility of military threats in war, the suggestions are that the theory is added with factors specifically included in war, such as how Rules of Engagement complicate the use of force, and how the international society respond to an actor threatening with disproportionate amount of force.