Förtätning i storstäderna – En analys av förtätningens påverkan på småhuspriser

Sammanfattning: Infill development has become a common occurrence in Sweden’s bigger cities. The densification of residential areas has been a strategy for managing the accelerating urbanization rate. In Stockholm and Gothenburg, neighbourhoods consisting of single- family houses have been a subject of densification through the subdivision of property units and the replacement of single-family dwellings with apartments buildings. On one hand this phenomenon has faced criticism for being detrimental to the character of existing neighbourhoods. On the other hand, it has been praised for being a potential strategy to reduce the housing shortage in Sweden. Focusing on the construction of new apartment buildings in existing neighbourhoods consisting of single-family dwellings, the study aims to investigate how this type of infill development impacts property price. The study takes regard to two critical phases of infill development: after construction has begun and after completion of the development. Additionally, the study investigates if price effects vary with the magnitude of the new construction project. By using a difference-in-difference method by a hedonic price model, the price effects of infill development are estimated. The data sample includes transaction data from Stockholm and Gothenburg over the period of 2013-2023 as well as information about construction projects completed between 2015-2020. The property price effects are estimated within a 1000- and 500-meter distance from new construction. The result of the analysis includes both positive, negative, and non-significant price effects on property price due to infill development in the surrounding area. Some indication that the starting of new construction leads to value-decreasing effects on existing properties is found. This is believed to be explained by the temporary disturbance that the construction causes. After the completion of the development, no significant effects were found, which can indicate that the found negative price-effects generated by the construction, ceases to exist. However, even for the found significant price effects, it’s difficult to determine whether they solely are a result of infill development or a result of combination of factors that have not fully been considered in this study.