Att mäta effekter av åtgärder mot anlagd brand i skola

Sammanfattning: Arson in schools is a problem that has been increasing in Sweden recently. It is a problem that involves big economical and material losses for the society. To prevent arson, fire services often perform interventions against arson by informing and educating children and adolescent in fire risk. The benefits of such information and educational interventions can be difficult to quantify in order to measure the efficiency of the intervention. This work presents a model to indicate the expected number of arson fires in schools in a municipality based on its local conditions. The model is constructed by analyzing statistics using multiple regression analysis. By basing the model on variables that are not affected by an intervention, the difference between expected number of fires and actual number of fires, can be seen as the effects of interventions. The report also presents guidance of how to perform a cost-benefit analysis based on the presented model.