Kartläggning av framtida risker och sårbarheter inom elnätsbolag - fokus på klimatförändringar och långsiktiga samhällstrender

Sammanfattning: To gain increased understanding of how long-term societal trends affect the southern Swedish electric distribution systems, a risk and vulnerability assessment was conducted with the help of literature analysis, interview and Matlab simulations. A representative distribution network was created to mimic Helsingborgs network, owned by Öresundskraft. A comprehensive literature study and interview with Öresundskraft concluded that the major societal trends in need of analysis of their effects are (1) population growth, (2) decentralized distribution, (3) exacerbated storm events and (4) increased flood risks. To address the complexity of our reality, a composite of the mentioned trends was also created and included in the analyses. The trends were divided into summer and winter scenarios, and the analyses were conducted for the year 2030, 2050 and 2070. To analyse risks, following reliability indexes were used as measurements: SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI, ASUI and Demand Hours Not Supplied (DHNS). Vulnerability was analyzed by conducting both random and strategic component removal and measuring the overall network's capacity after the removals. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to measure how different individual trends contribute to the uncertainty in the composite trend. The results of the risk and vulnerability analyses showed that decentralized distribution gives higher reliability and robustness, while population growth decreases the network's reliability and robustness and future exacerbation in storm and flood events does not affect the network significantly. Sensitivity analysis shows that further studies should be conducted regarding increased population and exacerbated storm events, and their long-term implications on the local distribution network. This study was intended to serve as a base for resource planning in the electric distribution sector, but it can also be used as a pilot study for further investigation on how to strengthen the overall societal resilience relating to supply of electricity.