Energy modelling to support sub-national sustainable planning in developing countries : The case of Kakamega County in Kenya

Sammanfattning: Kenya is at the forefront of a socioeconomic transformation, aiming to turn into an industrialized middle income country by 2030. Kenya Vision 2030 has identified energy as a key foundation and one of the infrastructural “enablers” upon which the economic, social and political pillars of this long-term development strategy will be built. Predicting the future of energy systems however, involves risks due to various uncertainties. Therefore, systematic energy planning at national and sub-national/County level is highly recommended through the adoption of more realistic assumptions on the future evolution and profile of demand and robust pre-feasibility of prospective projects including the integration of renewable energy sources, which the country is endowed with. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy sector for Kakamega County in Western Kenya. The current energy demand level was estimated for six selected sectors of the County namely Residential, Industrial, Transportation, Commercial, Public and Agricultural. Additionally, the renewable energy resources potential was assessed at local level using GIS and other available data. LEAP software was used in order to model and project the energy demand and supply based on three 15-year scenarios till 2030, developed to support the economic, social and environmental sustainability of the County. This study intended to create a framework aiming to facilitate sub-national energy planning in developing countries and it is expected that the findings will be complementary to already existing energy planning models but also the base for future research towards energy poverty elimination.