Between Realism and Idealism : A grounded theory analysis of liberal and realist dynamics in the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict

Sammanfattning: This study has been conducted to investigate the current situation and the possible outcomes in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The conflict predominantly concerns the status of the Karabakh region, a region legally belonging to Azerbaijan, but which up to recent events in 2023 has been under control of Armenian separatists. The study had the goal of explaining the conflict and its outcomes with the use of the theoretical perspective’s realism and liberal internationalism. The study was conducted using a grounded theory approach and found several key factors influencing the conflict and its future. The realist perspective has contributed to the analysis by suggesting the conquest of the Karabakh region can be seen as a compensation from the Armenia- Russian alliance to deter further conflict. Using the liberal internationalist perspective to evaluate the situation has led to the conclusions that international institutions did not achieve a successful hold in the region in the post-soviet space as there was an existing conflict with already dominating powers percent. However, with the Russian withdrawal, the European Union has increased its role as a negotiator. This, combined with the Azerbaijanian control of the Karabakh region, the role of oil trade, and the Armenian state promoting diplomacy and institutions, may increase the likelihood of peace.